COP26 : Earth has 11 years to cut emissions to avoid dire climate scenarios

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052267118/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-emissions-global-carbon-budget Earth has 11 years to cut emissions to avoid dire climate scenarios, a report says November 4, 202110:06 AM ET

Smokestacks belch in Weihai, in China's Shandong province, in 2019. China is set to surpass pre-pandemic levels of carbon dioxide emissions this year. Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images The current rate of greenhouse gas pollution is so high that the Earth has about 11 years to rein in emissions if countries want to avoid the worst damage from climate change in the future, a new study concludes. Despite dipping in 2020 because of the global pandemic, greenhouse gas emissions are on track to return to pre-pandemic levels, according to the annual Global Carbon Budget report. The findings, currently under review before publication, underscore that the urgency of cutting emissions is even greater than previously thought, if the world is to avoid a rise in average global temperatures that is greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. That was the goal set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement and pursued by countries currently gathered for a major United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. The Global Carbon Budget is compiled with input from dozens of researchers around the world. It monitors the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that humans put out and how much room is left for such emissions to stay within the 1.5 C limit. When the first report was issued in 2015, scientists projected that the Earth had a 20-year time horizon before emissions would result in warming above the set limit by the end of the century. But the output of greenhouse gases has risen even faster than expected, with half of that budget expended in just the past six years. At current levels of emissions, there's a 50% chance that a rise in temperatures of 1.5 C by the end of this century will be locked in by 2033. With no reductions, more dire scenarios are equally likely --- with a 1.7 degrees C increase inevitable by 2042 and a 2 degrees C jump unavoidable by 2054. Global average temperatures over the last 150 years have risen about 1.1 degrees C (or about 2 degrees F), intensifying wildfires, floods and hurricanes worldwide. "Global fossil CO2 emissions (excluding cement carbonation) in 2021 are returning towards their 2019 levels after decreasing [5.4%] in 2020," the report states. The COP26 summit The U.K. considers its 1st new coal mine in decades even as it calls to phase out coal The authors note that reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, which is the goal of those pushing climate action at the Glasgow summit, "entails cutting total anthropogenic [human caused] CO2 emissions" by an amount "comparable to the decrease during 2020." Emissions from China, which in recent years has surpassed the U.S. as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, growing by 5.5% according to data in the latest report. India's emissions have increased 4.4%. However, there are a few encouraging signs in the report, notably that emissions have decreased over the past decade in 23 countries whose economies were growing before the coronavirus pandemic — including the U.S. and the United Kingdom. The list, which account for about a quarter of global CO2 emissions, also contains several wealthy nations in Europe, as well as Japan. Source: https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052267118/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-emissions-global-carbon-budget Related article: The U.N. says climate impacts are getting worse faster than the world is adapting November 4, 20217:31 AM ET

Xinxiang, in China's Henan Province on July 26, was one of many places that suffered extreme flooding this year. A U.N reports finds climate impacts are getting worse faster than countries can adapt. Dake Kang/AP As world leaders meet in Glasgow to try to curb planet-warming emissions an uncomfortable reality underlies their efforts: They've gathered on a shrinking island in a rising sea, where temperatures are already hotter and storms more severe. A new report by the United Nations says that some impacts from climate change are already irreversible, and our efforts to adapt are lagging. Meanwhile, a gap is growing between the amount of money that's available — and what's needed — to protect communities from rising seas, hotter temperatures and worsening storms. The COP26 summit India pledges net-zero emissions by 2070 — but also wants to expand coal mining "Even if we were to turn off the tap on greenhouse gas emissions today, the impacts of climate change would be with us for many decades to come," says Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. The new report — aptly named "The Gathering Storm: Adapting to climate change in a post-pandemic world" — urges world leaders to make communities more resilient, given that reality. And it warns that they're missing an opportunity to do so. More than $16 trillion have been spent globally to jumpstart economies during the COVID-19 pandemic, but only a small portion of that has been aimed at climate adaptation efforts. The pandemic, meanwhile, has shrunk government revenues and disrupted supply chains, hampering adaptation projects, particularly in developing countries. "Climate change and the pandemic share some striking similarities: like the pandemic, the climate change crisis is a systemic problem that requires coordinated global, national and local responses," the report says. "Many of the lessons learned from handling the pandemic have the potential to serve as examples of how to improve climate adaptation and financing." Developing countries are being hit the hardest The countries least responsible for the warming planet are often hardest hit, and the U.N. says those climate impacts are getting worse faster than countries are adapting. A recent report by the medical journal The Lancet found that climate change is worsening human health in nearly every measurable way. The World Health Organization says that by the end of the decade, climate change is expected to contribute to approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. Developing countries with weak health systems, it says, will be least able to cope. But they won't be alone. Earlier this year, hundreds of people died during a heatwave that baked the Pacific Northwest and Canada and thousands more people died during a heatwave in Western Europe than would normally occur. Climate-fueled wildfires torched entire towns in Canada and around the Mediterranean. And flooding caused billions of dollars worth of damage in China, India and Europe. The U.S. experienced 18 climate-related natural disasters this year that exceeded $1 billion in costs. Last year it had 22. "2021 was the year in which climate impacts hit developed and developing countries with a new ferocity," the UN report says in its foreword. "So, even as we look to step up efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions — efforts that are still not anywhere strong enough — we must dramatically up our game to adapt." There are reasons for optimism A growing number of countries are creating policies, laws or plans to adapt to a warming world, the UN report says. More than three-quarters of the world's countries have adopted at least one policy to make their communities more secure, and more projects are attracting sizable investments. But the world's wealthiest countries, which have contributed roughly 80 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions warming the planet, still haven't delivered on a promise to give developing countries $100 billion a year to help them deal with the effects of climate change. That money was supposed to be available last year. The COP26 summit Biden announces a plan in Glasgow to help poorer countries with climate change Earlier this week, John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, told reporters the money would be mobilized by 2023, but doubts remain and the needs may be far higher. The U.N. report finds that estimated adaptation costs are likely to be five to ten times higher than current international financial flows. Even in rich countries like the U.S., adaptation financing is nowhere near where it needs to be, says A.R. Siders, a climate adaptation expert at the University of Delaware. "We're not taking enough action at the national level, at the state level or globally," she says. "And when we are dealing with [the consequences of climate change], we're dealing with them very much in a disaster response way, which is 'Hey, that disaster happened. Let's try to get everybody back to their pre-disaster normal.'" With a rapidly warming climate though, she says, "Normal doesn't work." ?!