BEIJING—As China's assertiveness mounts, nothing seems to illustrate the impotence of Southeast Asian nations more than their glacial progress toward a code of conduct with Beijing on the South China Sea.
It's been a marathon effort—and there's no end in sight: China has made it explicitly clear it's in no hurry to move ahead. But it would be misguided to think Beijing is shrugging off the push entirely.
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, has been imploring China for a code of conduct to head off exactly the sort of action that's now roiling one of the most flourishing areas of the global economy—Beijing's decision to tow a gigantic oil drilling rig into disputed waters off Vietnam, protected by military aircraft and a flotilla of ships.
Over the weekend, Asean leaders once again pleaded for speedy action on a code of conduct after a meeting in Myanmar that was overshadowed by the crisis. Washington, too, is pressing hard for it.
Yet, almost two decades after diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement got under way, formal discussions between China and Asean to work out the details have only just begun.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last year chided unnamed countries who he said wanted a "quick fix" agreement. Such an approach, he said, is "neither realistic nor serious."
Meantime, as diplomacy drags on, China has been rapidly building up its military capabilities, particularly its navy, and using its muscle to alter the landscape in its own backyard. In 2012, Chinese ships fenced off the Scarborough Shoal, one of the world's richest fishing grounds just off the Philippines coast.
Positioning an oil rig off Vietnam is an unprecedented move by China to press its natural resources claims in the South China Sea. Vietnam accuses Chinese vessels of repeatedly ramming its ships and opening up on them with water cannon. A Chinese foreign ministry official on Monday described the positioning of the rig as merely a "continuation of our regular activity" in the area.
Many Western analysts believe that the timing of Beijing's aggressive rig maneuver, bracketed between a visit to the region by U.S. President Barack Obama and the Asean meeting in Myanmar, was designed to send a message: to the U.S., that China intends to test its resolve to "pivot" to Asia in support of its friends and allies who feel bullied by China; to Asean, that China means to enforce its claims over almost the entire South China Sea through unilateral action.
If that's the case, then what's the point of pushing for a code of conduct?
Why would Beijing ever agree to be tied down by arrangements that Asean has put forward to help keep the peace? Among them: full respect for the United Nations Law of the Sea, self-restraint and nonuse of force to resolve disputes.
The choice now facing the U.S. and its Asian allies is often presented in stark terms: either back down or confront China with military force.
Yet that perspective may be overly simplistic. For a start, China has been careful to calibrate its actions so that they fall just below the threshold that might trigger an armed response. China is many years away from being able to stand up militarily to the U.S.—and the presence of U.S. forces in the region is still a powerful deterrent.
But also, it overlooks the pressures that are building on Beijing to find compromise solutions based on international rules and norms.
Already, the Philippines has launched a legal challenge at a U.N. arbitration tribunal to China's sovereignty claims over the entire South China Sea. China has so far ignored the action, but Manila calculates—with reason—that China's failure to participate will come at a considerable cost to its international reputation, particularly if it wins a favorable ruling.
And the damage to Beijing's international standing could increase if other Asian countries take similar legal action, as seems likely over time.
China has no wish to be branded an international outlaw: It has devoted huge amounts of energy over the years into integrating itself into global rules-based institutions, even if its ultimate intention is to change them to its advantage from the inside.
Moreover, China's assertiveness is driving Southeast Asian countries into America's arms. Several are forging closer relations with Japan, China's arch-rival in the region. And, say military analysts, the prospect that new regional groupings may coalesce to counter Chinese power may also act to restrain Chinese behavior.
To be sure, attitudes toward China within Asean over the South China Sea are divided between countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, which favor a tougher line, and those like Thailand and Singapore, which have no direct maritime dispute with China. Cambodia, a close ally of China, has sided with Beijing in previous discussions on the disputes. This ambiguity was reflected in a statement issued by Asean foreign ministers on Saturday that expressed "serious concerns" over the clashes in the South China Sea—but without mentioning China by name.
Still, the fact that Asean was galvanized to come out with a statement at all underscores that Beijing pays a certain price for its aggressive actions. And that price rises the longer that discussions on a code of conduct limp on.