Saturday, January 9, 2016

Guns and Your Votes


US gun crime

Figures up to 3 December, 2015: 353

Mass shootings
  • 62 shootings at schools
  • 12,223 people killed in gun incidents
  • 24,722 people injured in gun incidents 
Source: Shooting tracker, Gun Violence Archive

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34424385

US gun control: What is the NRA and why is it so powerful

 It is one of the most powerful players in one of the most hotly-debated issues in the US - gun control - but what exactly is the NRA? Here's a quick guide.
What is the NRA?
NRA stands for National Rifle Association. The group was founded in 1871 as a recreational group designed to "promote and encourage rifle shooting on a scientific basis".
The NRA's path into political lobbying began in 1934 when it began mailing members with information about upcoming firearms bills. The association supported two major gun control acts, the National Firearms Act of 1934 (NFA) and Gun Control Act of 1968 (GCA), but became more politically active following the passage of the GCA in the 1970s.
In 1975, it began attempting to influence policy directly via a newly formed lobbying arm, the Institute for Legislative Action. In 1977 it formed its own Political Action Committee (PAC), to channel funds to legislators.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Wayne LaPierre has been an aggressive defender of the NRA
The NRA is now among the most powerful special interest lobby groups in the US, with a substantial budget to influence members of Congress on gun policy. It is run by executive vice president Wayne LaPierre.

How big is its budget?
The NRA spends about $250m per year, far more than all the country's gun control advocacy groups put together. But the NRA has a much larger membership than any of those groups and disburses funds for things such as gun ranges and educational programmes.
In terms of lobbying, the NRA officially spends about $3m per year to influence gun policy - the recorded spend on lobbying in 2014 was $3.3m. That is only the recorded contributions to lawmakers however, and considerable sums are spent elsewhere via PACs and independent expenditures - funds which are difficult to track.
Analysts point out that the NRA also wields considerable indirect influence via its highly politically engaged membership, many of whom will vote one way or another based on this single issue. The NRA publicly grades members of Congress from A to F on their perceived friendliness to gun rights. Those ratings can have a serious effect on poll numbers and even cost pro-gun control candidates a seat.
How big is the NRA?
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Attendees look at a display of shotguns during the NRA's 2013 annual convention
Estimates of the NRA's membership have varied widely for decades. The association claimed that membership surged to close to five million people in response to the mass shooting at Sandy Hook school, but some analysts put the figure at closer to three million. The organisation has been accused of artificially inflating the figure.
The NRA has boasted some high-profile members over the years, including former President George HW Bush. Mr Bush resigned from the group in 1995 after Mr La Pierre referred to federal agents in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing as "jack-booted thugs".
Current members include former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, and actors Tom Selleck and Whoopi Goldberg. The late actor Charlton Heston was president of the NRA between 1998 and 2003. Heston famously held a rifle over his head at an NRA convention following the Columbine High School massacre and told gun control advocates they would have to take it "from my cold, dead hands".
Why is it controversial?
The NRA has lobbied heavily against all forms of gun control and argued aggressively that more guns make the country safer. It relies on, and stanchly defends, a disputed interpretation of the Second Amendment to the US Constitution, which it argues gives US citizens the rights to bear arms.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Protesters outside the NRA headquarters in Fairfax, Virginia
The association faced criticism from both sides of the political spectrum in the wake of the Sandy Hook shooting, when Mr La Pierre said that the lack of an armed guard at the school was to blame for the tragedy.
It staunchly opposes most local, state and federal legislation that would restrict gun ownership. For example, the NRA recently has lobbied for guns confiscated by the police to be resold, arguing that destroying the weapons is, in effect, a waste of perfectly good guns.
Likewise, it strongly supports legislation that expand gun rights such as "open-carry" laws, which allow gun owners to carry their weapons, unconcealed, in most public places.


Why Obama is powerless to reform gun laws

…Mr Obama cited polls that find "the majority of Americans understand we should be changing these laws".
A mid-July survey by the Pew Research Center seems to support his claim. Almost 80% of respondents backed laws preventing the mentally ill from purchasing firearms, and 70% were in favour of a national gun-sale database.

So the public support it, why doesn't it happen?

Those numbers don't really mean much, however. What does matter is the opinion of members of the US Congress - and that legislative body is overwhelmingly against further gun regulation.
This disposition of Congress is a reflection of the disproportionate power of less-populated states in the Senate, the conservative-leaning composition of the current House congressional map and a Republican primary process that makes officeholders more sensitive to vehemently pro-gun-rights voters within their party.
Congress doesn't have to represent the views of the majority of Americans, at least as expressed in opinion surveys. It represents the views of Americans who go at the polls on Election Day and the simple majorities in the voting districts in which they cast their ballots.




Can't the states do their own thing?

In the Senate - which currently has 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats (or Democratic-supporting independents) - the individual state populations are the key. The votes of Senators John Barrasso and Mike Enzi in pro-gun Wyoming (population 584,153) have the same weight as gun-control-backing Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer in California (population 38.8 million).
And when it comes to the most divisive proposal queried in the Pew poll - a ban on assault weapons that is supported by 70% of Democrats but only 48% of Republicans - just seven states, including California, have enacted similar measures for their jurisdictions. The large majorities backing gun control in Illinois, for instance, are more than outweighed by pro-gun states like Alaska, Nebraska and Alabama, with a fraction of its population.

Where in Congress is the blockage?

In the House of Representatives - which has a 58-vote Republican majority - the divergence between national polls and the political reality within the chamber is even more stark.
Thanks to city-rural demographic trends in which pro-regulation liberals tend to live - and vote - in dense urban centres and state-level efforts by Republican-controlled legislatures to draw advantageous voting districts, many state congressional delegations trend more conservative than the general US voting population.
In 2012, for instance, Mr Obama carried 50.6% of the US vote, but Republican Mitt Romney won more votes in 226 of the nation's 435 congressional districts. Overall, Democratic House candidates received 1.4 million more votes than Republicans, but the conservative party won 33 more seats.
The US Congress has blocked all gun-control efforts in recent years
In 2014, 44% of Pennsylvania residents voted for Democratic House candidates, but they only won 27% of that state's seats.
And those victorious Republican candidates are selected in primaries where the financial support of deep-pocketed pro-gun lobbying groups like the National Rifle Association can prove decisive and the voters who turn out are the kind of conservatives who don't take kindly to a candidate in favour of greater restrictions on gun ownership.
It's a political environment where Republican officeholders face grassroot challenges if they're deemed insufficiently conservative but never if they're not moderate enough.
Congress isn't just against high-profile gun regulation - even measures supported by a large majority of the American people - it also prohibits federal efforts to conduct research on the causes of gun violence.

So what's the way forward?

"This is a political choice that we make to allow this to happen every few months in America," Mr Obama said in Thursday's press conference. "If you think this is a problem, then you should expect your elected officials to reflect your views."

During the 2014 mid-term elections, just 36% of eligible voters went to the polls. And more of them, at least in states and congressional districts where it counts, voted for Republican candidates picked in primaries by just 9.5% of US registered voters.
In the US today, it's the gun-control views of that 9.5% that make the difference.
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34429918
 

Sources:


BBC News 
January 8, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35261394

Oregon shooting: Statistics behind 'routine' US gun violence.    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34424385


Why Obama is powerless to reform gun laws.  Anthony Zurcher BBC News 4 October 2015
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34429918