The 'Great Replacement' and the Buffalo Shooting

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/16/1099034094/what-is-the-great-replacement-theory What is the 'Great Replacement' and how is it tied to the Buffalo shooting suspect? May 16, 202212:35 AM ET Dustin Jones People gather outside the scene of a shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, N.Y., Sunday, May 15, 2022. Matt Rourke/AP Authorities are calling Saturday's mass shooting in Buffalo, N.Y., a racially motivated attack. The suspect allegedly wrote a 180-page document filled with hateful rants about race and ties to the "Great Replacement." Here's what you need to know about this particular conspiracy theory. What is the "Great Replacement"? In short, the "Great Replacement" is a conspiracy theory that states that non-white individuals are being brought into the United States and other Western countries to "replace" white voters to achieve a political agenda. It is often touted by anti-immigration groups, white supremacists and others, according to the National Immigration Forum. White supremacists argue that the influx of immigrants, people of color more specifically, will lead to the extinction of the white race. What we know so far about the Buffalo mass shooting Payton Gendron, the 18-year-old white male accused of killing 10 people and wounding another three in Buffalo, allegedly said in his screed that the decrease in white birth rates equates to a genocide. The alleged supermarket shooter and other extremists claim the U.S. has to close its borders to immigrants. The "Great Replacement" theory is sometimes seen in other ways such as claims of voter replacement and immigrants invading America, the National Immigration Forum said. The first claim assumes that immigrants and non-white people will vote a certain way, ultimately drowning out the votes of white Americans. Adolphus Belk Jr., professor of political science and African American studies at Winthrop University, said white nationalist movements arise when people of color are seen as a threat in the political and economic realms. Belk said white nationalists are worried that, "whites will no longer be a majority of the general population, but a plurality, and see that as a threat to their own well-being and the well-being of the nation." Where does this theory come from? The "Great Replacement" theory has roots in French nationalism books dating back to the early 1900s, according to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL). However, the theory's more contemporary use is attributed to Renaud Camus, a French writer who wrote "Le Grand Remplacement" (which translates to "The Great Replacement") in 2011. French writer and critic Renaud Camus. Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images Camus' writing was influenced by another French Author, Jean Raspail, whose 1973 novel, The Camp of the Saints, told a fictional tale of migrants banding together to take over France, the ADL said. According to the ADL, white supremacists blame Jewish people for non-white immigration to the U.S., and the replacement theory is now associated with antisemitism. A core belief to the white supremacist movement is the 14-word slogan, "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for White children," according to the Southern Poverty Law Center. That slogan was coined by David Lane, a member of the white supremacist group The Order. Protestors in Charlottesville, Va., Aug. 12, 2017. White supremacists at the protests chanted, "The Jews will not replace us!", a reference to the "Great Replacement" theory. Steve Helber/AP Fast forward to August 2017, when white nationalists rallied at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. Rally participants chanted, "The Jews will not replace us!" The "Great Replacement" and its role in hate crimes The Buffalo shooting suspect is only one of many violent examples attributed to this the "Great Replacement." It's 19 weeks into the year and America has already seen 198 mass shootings The U.S. House Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security held a hearing about the rise of hate crimes and white nationalism in April 2019. New York representative and Judiciary Committee chairperson Jerrold Nadler had then described the issue as, "an urgent crisis in our country." "Unfortunately, various statistics confirm what most of us have observed, that hate incidents are increasing in the United States," Nadler said. "This increase has occurred during a disturbing rise of white nationalism in our country and across the globe." A person pauses in front of Stars of David with the names of those killed in a deadly shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue, in Pittsburgh, October, 29, 2018. Matt Rourke/AP He listed several racially motivated attacks: nine people killed at a South Carolina church in 2015; 11 at a synagogue in Pennsylvania in 2018; 50 people shot and killed at a mosque in New Zealand in 2019. Belk said what makes individual extremists and white nationalist groups so dangerous are the lengths they are willing to go to in order protect their position in society. "They are willing to use any means that are available to preserve and defend their position in society ... it's almost like a sort of holy war, a conflict, where they see themselves as taking the action directly to the offending culture and people by eliminating them," Belk said. The suspect in custody for Buffalo's most recent mass shooting traveled from Broome County, N.Y., some 200 miles away, to carry out his attack, according to police. The overwhelming majority of the victims were Black. Related: https://www.npr.org/2022/05/17/1099233034/the-great-replacement-conspiracy-theory-isnt-fringe-anymore-its-mainstream The 'Great Replacement' conspiracy theory isn't fringe anymore, it's mainstream May 17, 20225:57 AM ET Hundreds of white nationalists, neo-Nazis and members of the "alt-right" march down East Market Street toward Emancipation Park during the "Unite the Right" rally August 12, 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images A 180-page online screed attributed to the white man accused of killing 10 people at a Tops Friendly Market in Buffalo on Saturday has brought a once-fringe white extremist conspiracy theory into the spotlight. But the underpinnings of the Great Replacement conspiracy theory, which has been iterated on over time to appeal to wider audiences, has penetrated a much more mainstream portion of American society. A recent poll, conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that one in three American adults now believes in a version of replacement theory. The speed with which this false narrative has tipped into American discourse since a French ethnonationalist first coined the term roughly a decade ago has stunned even extremism experts who have tracked the spread of hate-filled ideologies. They cite the failure of major social media platforms to effectively moderate such content, the role of Fox News hosts in amplifying these ideas, and the uptake of the conspiracy's language by some elected Republican officials Demographic change Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage of Americans who identified as "White Only" declined by more than 10 percent, from 72 to 62 percent. During that same decade, several Western European countries saw record influxes of migrants from Muslim nations. It is against the backdrop of this demographic change that replacement rhetoric has accelerated in recent years. "In the U.S., [it's] often called 'white genocide.' In Europe, [it's] called 'Eurabia,' " said Cynthia Miller-Idriss, professor and director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University. The baseless theories claim that these population shifts are orchestrated by elite power holders. In the U.S., Miller-Idriss said white nationalists ascribe the plot to Jews who they believe are bringing in immigrants and promoting interracial marriage to suppress whites. In Europe, the false narrative blames elite politicians for a growing Muslim population. Miller-Idriss said the coining of the term "Great Replacement" in France marked a key moment in the growth of these beliefs. "It has unified and really spread [the conspiracies] online in memes and videos and in a lot of propaganda," she said. "It capitalized on a moment when you're not just reading written propaganda or sharing it in a newsletter or in a small group in a backwoods militia. But it's circulating in these dark online spaces where this [alleged] Buffalo shooter writes he was exposed and radicalized." From there, the conspiracy theories migrated toward progressively less fringe conservative media platforms, said Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO and national director of the Anti-Defamation League. "We have literally watched as ideas that originate on white supremacist message boards, or like the dark web – the places that are very difficult to get to – move," said Greenblatt. "They literally jump to [Internet message boards like] 4chan and 8chan, which are much more accessible, [then] they jump to web sites like The Daily Caller or Breitbart, and then they jump to Tucker Carlson's talking points or Laura Ingraham's talking points, or other AM radio DJs' talking points. And then you have theoretically mainstream Republican politicians repeating some of this stuff." Carlson and Ingraham are Fox News hosts. "Sanitizing" the message Although the roots of the Great Replacement are firmly planted in the organized white supremacist movement, a version of the baseless conspiracy has spread among a wider swath of Americans with some minor tweaking of language. Matthew Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, said that Carlson has framed the issue around voter replacement. "What he says is that the Democrats are importing immigrants and that they are replacing Americans," said Gertz. "But no one should really be confused by what he is trying to do. The specific cases that he's talking about are Central American immigrants, they are immigrants from Africa, they are immigrants from the Middle East." Tucker Carlson speaks at a convention in Esztergom, Hungary on August 7, 2021. Janos Kummer/Getty Images Greenblatt, whose organization has repeatedly called on Fox News to fire Carlson, said figures such as Carlson have sought language that might be palatable to more Americans. In moving away from white nationalist terms like "white genocide" and "Jewish cabal," they have repackaged the conspiracy as one driven by political partisanship. "It has been an intentional effort ... to take these ideas and to try to sanitize them ... so they could bring their ideas into the mainstream," said Greenblatt. Fox News declined to comment in response to questions from NPR about the role that critics say Carlson and Ingraham have played in stoking fears over replacement. Greenblatt, Gertz and Miller-Idriss say claims of an orchestrated "immigrant invasion" have gained legitimacy through the endorsement of some elected Republicans, most notably former President Donald Trump. But they note that the messaging his continued after Trump left office. "Elise Stefanik has pushed the same thing," said Gertz, referring to the third-highest ranking Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives. "This is moving steadily into mainstream Republican politics." How to fight a pervasive conspiracy theory? The document believed to have been written by the suspected gunman in the Buffalo attack does not ascribe his radicalization to Fox News or rhetoric of politicians. Rather, he describes it as taking place on the same Internet chat boards that were early to adopt the language of the racist Great Replacement conspiracy theory, such as 4chan. "[Those are] still, I think, the spaces and places we should be most worried about," said Miller-Idriss. Still, Miller-Idriss and other extremism experts say the mainstreaming of replacement theory remains alarming. Greenblatt said it isn't enough to condemn the violence, because speech that dehumanizes other people – whether Blacks, immigrants or Jews – can inspire violence. "What I would suggest is that people in positions of authority, who have platforms, should use those platforms responsibly and call out this kind of ugliness and cease the incitement immediately because it's too dangerous to do otherwise," he said. In the wake of the tragedy, much attention is focusing on whether stricter gun laws might have prevented it, the role of social media, whether the suspected gunman had a history of mental health problems, and whether law enforcement authorities missed early red flags. "But all of that really doesn't make a difference if [individuals] in the end don't have a basic understanding of the legacy of racism, of structural racism [and of] systemic racism in this country," said Miller-Idriss. She said that many young people observe the racial disparities in American society and will seek out answers to them. The document believed to be linked to the suspect pulls data from dubious online sources to support spurious claims of biological racism and crime rates. "They may not be talking about it from good academic sources or good learning sources," Miller-Idriss said, "but they're going to be hearing about it in dark online spaces instead."